Ledger / Prediction #490 · narrative · 1H

Will "angel" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

85 of 2166 launches in the last hour referenced "angel" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

Made2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4249820016084324,
      "momentum": -0.1244086635640151,
      "diversity": -0.8576470588235294
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.297951091603573
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "angel",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03483992467043315,
    "share60": 0.03945546838947854,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2166,
    "momentum": 0.8830189094833758,
    "diversity": 0.03529411764705882,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 85,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 316,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943713888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.297951091603573
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.089

Log loss0.354

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.024575513851653262,
  "shareRatio": 0.6249977410435604,
  "totalAfter": 2238,
  "shareBefore": 0.03944954128440367,
  "totalBefore": 2180,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 55,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 86
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "angel" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.94% → 2.46% (-38%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "angel" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha32f425ce513a7494e3df0bfa4abf57409a6d00a0caa545fcfee65c65e24f104

Previous hash449ce87d285f3dd16b34f6bbb780d8431cd8116b5c8dae207089dda2bdbea5e5