Ledger / Prediction #482 · narrative · 24H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
125 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (89 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.04×.
Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.48283137373023005,
"momentum": 0.03621830106891009,
"diversity": -0.045600000000000036
},
"rawProbability": 0.48418648510620593
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.06435643564356436,
"share60": 0.06206726013847676,
"total15": 504,
"total60": 2021,
"momentum": 1.0368821742732042,
"diversity": 0.712,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 125,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 89
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 302,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9257419675925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.48418648510620593
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.234
Log loss0.662
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02822093556046153,
"shareRatio": 0.4173222818194824,
"totalAfter": 48014,
"shareBefore": 0.06763778478482924,
"totalBefore": 45034,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1355,
"coverageBefore": 0.9258370486111112,
"launchesBefore": 3046
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "quantum" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 6.76% → 2.82% (-58%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "quantum" (24H). diversity contributed -0.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
65c261615f7f8a04fdf5e21c267e2b2c64f0e72cdd28a20f8626dbdfb7bc805fPrevious hash
28874dff31f8304f979858def845612c154e9294deabe05af72acdcb0402999e