Ledger / Prediction #481 · narrative · 24H

Will "sib" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

163 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "sib" (59 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5226468432558993,
      "momentum": -0.32513875668647696,
      "diversity": -0.4656441717791411
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39315534010088565
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sib",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05841584158415842,
    "share60": 0.08086053412462908,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 0.7224271050958307,
    "diversity": 0.3619631901840491,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 163,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 59
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9257419675925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39315534010088565
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.155

Log loss0.500

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029991252551339193,
  "shareRatio": 0.4228760090734776,
  "totalAfter": 48014,
  "shareBefore": 0.00710574232801883,
  "totalBefore": 45034,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 144,
  "coverageBefore": 0.9258370486111112,
  "launchesBefore": 320
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "sib" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.30% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "sib" (24H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash28874dff31f8304f979858def845612c154e9294deabe05af72acdcb0402999e

Previous hashfd9482478f0d0713b34428e82e9bc5fa82f2356f523495658deeb66177cd9228