Will "ultimate" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "ultimate" (5 distinct creators, rank #355). Last 15m momentum 1.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.5988266099407867,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5815595107174136
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ultimate",
    "rank60": 355,
    "share15": 0.0049504950495049506,
    "share60": 0.0027200791295746785,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 1.81998199819982,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996196759259259
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5815595107174136
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006422607578676942,
  "shareRatio": 0.365942416782618,
  "totalAfter": 9342,
  "shareBefore": 0.001866703539823009,
  "totalBefore": 14464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity