Ledger / Prediction #476 · narrative · 1H

Will "grencat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "grencat" (3 distinct creators, rank #258). Last 15m momentum 0.31×.

Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.1776653871564797,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14800720015416355
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grencat",
    "rank60": 258,
    "share15": 0.0009900990099009901,
    "share60": 0.003214638971315529,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 0.307996953541508,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977180555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14800720015416355
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.160

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008654262224145391,
  "shareRatio": 0.33803566675539,
  "totalAfter": 2311,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029542097488921715,
  "totalBefore": 2031,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "grencat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.09% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "grencat" (1H). momentum contributed -1.18 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4ab2dddc7b2b3075c77c768e3839b89a14d2a850124625f6ae4a2b7dcb4c13c1

Previous hashfb274559756f41ca7950cddbd2ab51290aae9ab85c6fcbfab2d27ae1c47d426c