Ledger / Prediction #475 · narrative · 1H

Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

68 of 2021 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (26 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

Made2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.391510468911301,
      "momentum": -0.5882579763566276,
      "diversity": -0.44117647058823534
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2813198800251416
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usepaid",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.01881188118811881,
    "share60": 0.03387734915924827,
    "total15": 504,
    "total60": 2021,
    "momentum": 0.5552937775529377,
    "diversity": 0.38235294117647056,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 68,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 302,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977180555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977180555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2813198800251416
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.079

Log loss0.330

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006057983556901774,
  "shareRatio": 0.18604298739676203,
  "totalAfter": 2311,
  "shareBefore": 0.03348104382077794,
  "totalBefore": 2031,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 68
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "usepaid" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.35% → 0.61% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "usepaid" (1H). momentum contributed -0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfb274559756f41ca7950cddbd2ab51290aae9ab85c6fcbfab2d27ae1c47d426c

Previous hash671633be6579dc30921b40d4d5146d7a9f2706bd69b483d7a31bdba5dd7da7ac