Ledger / Prediction #460 · narrative · 1H

Will "toad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "toad" (5 distinct creators, rank #117). Last 15m momentum 0.64×.

Made2026-10-10 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -0.4415063921704017,
      "diversity": -0.35454545454545455
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2733318581414843
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "toad",
    "rank60": 117,
    "share15": 0.0033783783783783786,
    "share60": 0.005253540429419826,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2188,
    "momentum": 0.6430669800235018,
    "diversity": 0.45454545454545453,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 321,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924152777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2733318581414843
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.075

Log loss0.319

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009174311926605505,
  "shareRatio": 0.2199828558897992,
  "totalAfter": 2180,
  "shareBefore": 0.004986400725294651,
  "totalBefore": 2206,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "toad" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.09% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "toad" (1H). momentum contributed -0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdbfa6be553fe82d89c9a1c045e8ff349ae0b704a3dd42e0148d76666e42f5018

Previous hash3619a879a196305577bd18a9123c9dc6c70a88b3e317cfc4d943c5cfe7121a23