Will "sib" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

133 of 2188 launches in the last hour referenced "sib" (90 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.57×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49213668236814795,
      "momentum": -0.5578859188244651,
      "diversity": -0.08796992481203011
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3884768668661186
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sib",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03490990990990991,
    "share60": 0.06098675194152581,
    "total15": 443,
    "total60": 2188,
    "momentum": 0.572417923541519,
    "diversity": 0.6766917293233082,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 133,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 90
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 321,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924152777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924152777777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3884768668661186
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.08669724770642202,
  "shareRatio": 1.4363974193193858,
  "totalAfter": 2180,
  "shareBefore": 0.06029011786038078,
  "totalBefore": 2206,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 189,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity