GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #446 · narrative · 1H

Will "beauty" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

206 of 2562 launches in the last hour referenced "beauty" (116 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

Made2026-10-10 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5577657384533221,
      "momentum": -0.912734945332535,
      "diversity": -0.2242718446601942
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29333507635698974
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "beauty",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.032342657342657344,
    "share60": 0.08056964494732735,
    "total15": 571,
    "total60": 2562,
    "momentum": 0.4014248463401006,
    "diversity": 0.5631067961165048,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 206,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 116
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 370,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9960377777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29333507635698974
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.086
Log loss0.347
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.041851304775972424,
  "shareRatio": 0.5232598043888582,
  "totalAfter": 2031,
  "shareBefore": 0.0802493182703545,
  "totalBefore": 2567,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 85,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 206
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 29% that "beauty" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.02% → 4.19% (-48%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "beauty" (1H). momentum contributed -0.91 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashadd39267fe6e42570a77abd4c364c80e70908d8abde300d6c215604156fa416c
Previous hash639d359a61cc37270e1215430c01c1f38f437cb66c1e2839ca4870aaa4249dba