Ledger / Prediction #442 · token · 6H

Will $Qoge still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "quantum".

Made2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5YdGLf9t65jN1VSHscsULcqDgP6Sp5d1pZLkdtDrpump",
    "name": "Quantum Doge",
    "symbol": "Qoge",
    "hotTerms": [
      "quantum"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3251.4301291997417,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 765,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T01:41:58.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2923.636196469329,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5601.091807067217,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3251.4301291997417,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6502.860258399483
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $Qoge would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,924, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Qoge (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9093f1bc3ebf8c8c486a83f3a736a4a41c0e6cf37d21f1d032d3e86269da8771

Previous hash0cc679402b69e71649ff79d6ad0fea8603a72701c8e05a8f603593e1a5aa7b4e