Ledger / Prediction #437 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

121 of 2417 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (13 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 2.06×.

Made2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4779528949743961,
      "momentum": 0.723719536058602,
      "diversity": -0.7710743801652893
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.500354658842369
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.10361613351877608,
    "share60": 0.05024813895781638,
    "total15": 718,
    "total60": 2417,
    "momentum": 2.0620889781761362,
    "diversity": 0.10743801652892562,
    "launches15": 74,
    "launches60": 121,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 342,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998447685185186
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.500354658842369
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.250

Log loss0.692

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028500505654132573,
  "shareRatio": 1.871262980187678,
  "totalAfter": 10877,
  "shareBefore": 0.015221707478491065,
  "totalBefore": 15110,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 310,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 230
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.52% → 2.85% (+87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +0.72 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2548c08b0febc9fc3af4def03cb717aebf9d0368d4729de5cb1071e294a7022b

Previous hash376d0a8f76a73172da516ba74aa797533b07b27a728495f757ad209208048c66