Ledger / Prediction #435 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
80 of 2417 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (13 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.98×.
Made2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4158883083359672,
"momentum": -0.018422089820713236,
"diversity": -0.705
},
"rawProbability": 0.3526219807521979
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.03268428372739916,
"share60": 0.03329197684036394,
"total15": 718,
"total60": 2417,
"momentum": 0.9817465596627475,
"diversity": 0.1625,
"launches15": 23,
"launches60": 80,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 13
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 342,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990686111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990686111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3526219807521979
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.419
Log loss1.042
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03762466001813237,
"shareRatio": 1.1392548272436376,
"totalAfter": 2206,
"shareBefore": 0.0330169211721007,
"totalBefore": 2423,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 83,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 80
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 35% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.30% → 3.76% (+14%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.70 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
84edecff9402b6e432902f3fadd9a20185363298bbba8ea7367ee7b3d8103144Previous hash
f5a41ada7af868a481ebfaa34537397fa3f75d82ed09f07298e884d7b6ede72d