Ledger / Prediction #4325 · token · 1H

Will $posted ca still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link. Rides hot term "posted". Creator launched 23 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-15 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5d7geEWRLam6tqyTL4wshCdLj8Lr42pYePmJctPqpump",
    "name": "last coin went 400k",
    "symbol": "posted ca",
    "hotTerms": [
      "posted"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2893.6814737082987,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 23
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 467,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 2893.6814737082987,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2893.6814737082987,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5787.362947416597
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $posted ca would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,894, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $posted ca (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash88a6ec587421fac4abd979957a58714ba8811e32b041e6b6bc156a0a901eb7da

Previous hash04c434f611dd3be989cbd8074148abfdc2ba06ff7faa7fdc84a28540ae2bc3e5