Ledger / Prediction #4316 · narrative · 1H

Will "paid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1674 launches in the last hour referenced "paid" (11 distinct creators, rank #23). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.

Made2026-10-15 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.3831279282620123,
      "diversity": -0.12352941176470583
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3490787728173512
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "paid",
    "rank60": 23,
    "share15": 0.007122507122507123,
    "share60": 0.010447761194029851,
    "total15": 350,
    "total60": 1674,
    "momentum": 0.6817256817256817,
    "diversity": 0.6470588235294118,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 145,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921572222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921572222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3490787728173512
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.122

Log loss0.429

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00357653791130186,
  "shareRatio": 0.37808638823649543,
  "totalAfter": 1398,
  "shareBefore": 0.010107015457788348,
  "totalBefore": 1682,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 17
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "paid" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 0.36% (-65%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "paid" (1H). momentum contributed -0.38 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfaeda0502db63815f7ee96cee839b75a583797064e17e9c53d72dd13084674d9

Previous hash979a90c5236c1ee8a1ca256ae084c8be5f989e0770323725d8a3da63387ca021