Ledger / Prediction #4314 · narrative · 1H

Will "4chan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1674 launches in the last hour referenced "4chan" (3 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-15 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -3.032337629341289,
      "diversity": -0.826530612244898
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "4chan",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0014245014245014246,
    "share60": 0.02955223880597015,
    "total15": 350,
    "total60": 1674,
    "momentum": 0.04820282598060376,
    "diversity": 0.061224489795918366,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 145,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921572222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921572222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 03:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.012151536812008578,
  "totalAfter": 1398,
  "shareBefore": 0.029131985731272295,
  "totalBefore": 1682,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "4chan" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.91% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "4chan" (1H). momentum contributed -3.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9cd327365f634ddd2a353081ffb7f007db356d76aa054ea966eb15797943a1b6

Previous hash021b93405a2238a36ecdd37919d46c58c58db467c2d4d4d08160cdf9afa2cc3c