GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4312 · token · 6H

Will $NILZFUSION still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-15 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "94uEdfB6ypcf9oxnZadXYeDdEZWZfhafT8aUnihYpump",
    "name": "NILZFUSION",
    "symbol": "NILZFUSION",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3142.948484304046,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 668,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hash89b24365c60ec73588fb1cfb1bd2f7b1e52d854ddd31546d53802867ecb62b33
Previous hash5e0506db9c9eaa447a717fc1da4a377068da3889c9028927ff98bfd1471c1c80