Will "tweet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

140 of 1841 launches in the last hour referenced "tweet" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49983067652628055,
      "momentum": 0.4167423356942323,
      "diversity": -0.8742857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43592605958673325
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tweet",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.11571125265392782,
    "share60": 0.07627578718783931,
    "total15": 470,
    "total60": 1841,
    "momentum": 1.5170115828365482,
    "diversity": 0.02142857142857143,
    "launches15": 54,
    "launches60": 140,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957633333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957633333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43592605958673325
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004723669184764698,
  "totalAfter": 1392,
  "shareBefore": 0.07575757575757576,
  "totalBefore": 1848,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 140
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity