Will "innovation" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "innovation" (4 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.31×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -1.17242557981189,
      "diversity": -0.7451612903225806
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24564934299938077
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "innovation",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.005747126436781609,
    "share60": 0.018562168532704773,
    "total15": 434,
    "total60": 1696,
    "momentum": 0.3096150337529648,
    "diversity": 0.12903225806451613,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999938587962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24564934299938077
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 01:30 UTC.

Integrity