Ledger / Prediction #4289 · narrative · 24H
Will "solala" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
48 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "solala" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.90×.
Made2026-10-15 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-16 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3392644647710686,
"momentum": 1.3612712341455422,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5987520121216214
},
"features": {
"term": "solala",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.11149425287356322,
"share60": 0.028579846788450207,
"total15": 434,
"total60": 1696,
"momentum": 3.901149425287356,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 48,
"launches60": 48,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 165,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999938587962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5987520121216214
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 01:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
a5b135f8c8ffc6e6b69fd9104eed600dec634ed66758126ccca6b481141ae826Previous hash
35d90d318ebacd411969d5ba46087a1b7baa99cc3d0b514ad376c92e10df4ed2