Will "cate" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "cate" (4 distinct creators, rank #188). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0366240386528283,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27217075400829305
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cate",
    "rank60": 188,
    "share15": 0.0011494252873563218,
    "share60": 0.003241013553329405,
    "total15": 434,
    "total60": 1696,
    "momentum": 0.35464994775339603,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997543518518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27217075400829305
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:30 UTC.

Integrity