Will "task" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "task" (7 distinct creators, rank #112). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.3733298212425643,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3886882910810346
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "task",
    "rank60": 112,
    "share15": 0.0034482758620689655,
    "share60": 0.005008839127872717,
    "total15": 434,
    "total60": 1696,
    "momentum": 0.6884381338742392,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985261111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3886882910810346
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011890606420927466,
  "shareRatio": 0.29708853238265004,
  "totalAfter": 1682,
  "shareBefore": 0.004708652148322542,
  "totalBefore": 1699,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity