Ledger / Prediction #4283 · narrative · 1H

Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (44 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -1.4549925515969007,
      "diversity": 0.01034482758620685
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20149173432253845
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.008045977011494253,
    "share60": 0.03447259870359458,
    "total15": 434,
    "total60": 1696,
    "momentum": 0.2334021023676196,
    "diversity": 0.7586206896551724,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985261111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20149173432253845
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.041

Log loss0.225

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0077288941736028535,
  "shareRatio": 0.23310023310023315,
  "totalAfter": 1682,
  "shareBefore": 0.034137728075338436,
  "totalBefore": 1699,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "doge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.41% → 0.77% (-77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "doge" (1H). momentum contributed -1.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashefeab0b95a12b2df1937b2e5286b1c8d4d497b9ab20188d924a6fe33534e56e9

Previous hash3f3f575092c6c1aab535efab4a14669c8f5738722e3ec9374bcc2a60d8da71b8