Ledger / Prediction #4282 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 1696 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (59 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

Made2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": -0.3695275352928256,
      "diversity": -0.0862068965517242
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41890650675800556
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.035632183908045977,
    "share60": 0.05156157925751326,
    "total15": 434,
    "total60": 1696,
    "momentum": 0.6910607553366174,
    "diversity": 0.6781609195402298,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 59
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985261111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985261111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41890650675800556
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.175

Log loss0.543

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01605231866825208,
  "shareRatio": 0.3174603174603175,
  "totalAfter": 1682,
  "shareBefore": 0.051206592113007654,
  "totalBefore": 1699,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.12% → 1.61% (-69%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). momentum contributed -0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3f3f575092c6c1aab535efab4a14669c8f5738722e3ec9374bcc2a60d8da71b8

Previous hashed7c9b62179ccc0e84f10a683fc9567d33d99ed86c2ece3bdd88443655910cb3