Ledger / Prediction #4279 · token · 1H

Will $XPOSECAT still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 12m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "cat". Creator launched 11 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4tw3xzyPJ4kVkT9Rus1BiZM1XkGzot6wjQUs3WPYpump",
    "name": "Xpose The Trenches Cat",
    "symbol": "XPOSECAT",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 12,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3062.2502946853015,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 11
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 575,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-15T00:48:09.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3044.4838550804507,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3062.2502946853015,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3062.2502946853015,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6124.500589370603
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $XPOSECAT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,044, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $XPOSECAT (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3b58685a7c22c2589588bafecfc551a7d920732c4a7b66877def7c700e783c90

Previous hash905bfeea4d566aaddffb2707c142f1c19804c22f120e1999108e63a6a73ec0c7