Ledger / Prediction #4278 · token · 6H
Will $SAVPIR still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 5% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 17m ago. No social links. No hot term.
Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": 0
},
"rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
},
"features": {
"mint": "21hGt9BkMxLVG2L53Bm1g2aXS2oGjwGyQewUt38mpump",
"name": "Savage Piranha",
"symbol": "SAVPIR",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 17,
"hasTwitter": false,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 0,
"marketCapAtObservation": 2390.9570893044506,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 575,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
905bfeea4d566aaddffb2707c142f1c19804c22f120e1999108e63a6a73ec0c7Previous hash
75b3790e6eaa4b02824d4d2ea6d78497ef76880ce54c3575af08ac1b6205481e