GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4278 · token · 6H

Will $SAVPIR still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "21hGt9BkMxLVG2L53Bm1g2aXS2oGjwGyQewUt38mpump",
    "name": "Savage Piranha",
    "symbol": "SAVPIR",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2390.9570893044506,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 575,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC.

Integrity

Hash905bfeea4d566aaddffb2707c142f1c19804c22f120e1999108e63a6a73ec0c7
Previous hash75b3790e6eaa4b02824d4d2ea6d78497ef76880ce54c3575af08ac1b6205481e