Will "sniffer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "sniffer" (5 distinct creators, rank #148). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2671637531967797,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23474935640366845
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sniffer",
    "rank60": 148,
    "share15": 0.0012468827930174563,
    "share60": 0.004427390791027155,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 0.2816292601828761,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989228703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23474935640366845
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC.

Integrity