Will "scout" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "scout" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.58×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.4560330445939789,
      "diversity": -0.724390243902439
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43366438009427816
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scout",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03865336658354115,
    "share60": 0.024498229043683588,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.5778024817474388,
    "diversity": 0.14634146341463414,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989228703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43366438009427816
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC.

Integrity