GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #427 · narrative · 6H

Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (5 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0,
      "diversity": -0.7604651162790698
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35288300125285094
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fuck",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.019230769230769232,
    "share60": 0.019230769230769232,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 1,
    "diversity": 0.11627906976744186,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989711574074074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35288300125285094
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.419
Log loss1.042
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.007573779054583442,
  "shareRatio": 1.6742368639907017,
  "totalAfter": 11487,
  "shareBefore": 0.004516889238020424,
  "totalBefore": 15276,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 87,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.76% (+68%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "fuck" (6H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4cce301e4f8e821d05fd48e06adb830e31fb8741d55e20fc003cbdc9d7bef703
Previous hashba106f2a23f0ded9d9ee0af7820e58b71925b587a787a98db0b7d2d52b67ee73