Ledger / Prediction #427 · narrative · 6H
Will "fuck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 35% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "fuck" (5 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.
Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 0,
"diversity": -0.7604651162790698
},
"rawProbability": 0.35288300125285094
},
"features": {
"term": "fuck",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.019230769230769232,
"share60": 0.019230769230769232,
"total15": 597,
"total60": 2261,
"momentum": 1,
"diversity": 0.11627906976744186,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989711574074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.35288300125285094
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.419
Log loss1.042
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.007573779054583442,
"shareRatio": 1.6742368639907017,
"totalAfter": 11487,
"shareBefore": 0.004516889238020424,
"totalBefore": 15276,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 87,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 69
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 35% that "fuck" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.76% (+68%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "fuck" (6H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4cce301e4f8e821d05fd48e06adb830e31fb8741d55e20fc003cbdc9d7bef703Previous hash
ba106f2a23f0ded9d9ee0af7820e58b71925b587a787a98db0b7d2d52b67ee73