Ledger / Prediction #4266 · narrative · 1H

Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1693 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (7 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

Made2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.1711259030414915,
      "diversity": -0.7090909090909091
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3747828476536108
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03117206982543641,
    "share60": 0.02626918536009445,
    "total15": 400,
    "total60": 1693,
    "momentum": 1.1866401412199838,
    "diversity": 0.1590909090909091,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 185,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3747828476536108
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.140

Log loss0.470

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011363636363636364,
  "shareRatio": 0.4463025868826757,
  "totalAfter": 1848,
  "shareBefore": 0.025776215582893967,
  "totalBefore": 1707,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "memecoin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.58% → 1.14% (-56%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "memecoin" (1H). diversity contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash82c87b6a13a875086dbcb4bbc3afdd3fda1f40873e83ace79133479d62b18cd8

Previous hash6934fc701a090ba4704906ed5a919d168abe94cdbf9611adae7a1a10e9c2c1ca