Ledger / Prediction #4263 · token · 1H

Will $Alon still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "ELZyK9mMhskqroDPW6ZtqgK8AR9NqyCnBy6cyiwXpump",
    "name": "Alongatorcoon",
    "symbol": "Alon",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3070.477556824414,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 565,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-15T00:14:16.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3070.477556824414,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4868.3386366828245,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3070.477556824414,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6140.955113648828
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $Alon would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,070, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Alon (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash81abec5145b4e8372bb28c0b406d911c278a5f05accb0d907f87c4920b7cfe74

Previous hash681cc4cd9e2f25a9df04ed4f4ae0573599f52d002b29f93a2bc68d9fd6cffc7d