Will "jumping" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1761 launches in the last hour referenced "jumping" (3 distinct creators, rank #268). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.14423656210460073,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4211920757421829
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "jumping",
    "rank60": 268,
    "share15": 0.003605769230769231,
    "share60": 0.0031214528944381384,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1761,
    "momentum": 1.1551573426573427,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998696527777777
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4211920757421829
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 00:30 UTC.

Integrity