Will "dogs" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1761 launches in the last hour referenced "dogs" (15 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -1.2645306548673485,
      "diversity": -0.08181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2522070592067112
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dogs",
    "rank60": 43,
    "share15": 0.003605769230769231,
    "share60": 0.012769580022701475,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1761,
    "momentum": 0.28237179487179487,
    "diversity": 0.6818181818181818,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994786111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2522070592067112
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 06:30 UTC.

Integrity