Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 1761 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (11 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -3.191209441994774,
      "diversity": -0.6411764705882352
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wallet",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001201923076923077,
    "share60": 0.029228149829738932,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1761,
    "momentum": 0.04112210604929052,
    "diversity": 0.21568627450980393,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968716666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004708652148322542,
  "shareRatio": 0.17184466019417477,
  "totalAfter": 1699,
  "shareBefore": 0.02882984737139627,
  "totalBefore": 1769,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity