Ledger / Prediction #4248 · token · 6H
Will $AI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 6% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 28m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 141 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0.3,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0.3,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
},
"features": {
"mint": "7eRpF2hs1eyyVE2YomEb7Xx4ZoJosuR22wKG4b7vWzcb",
"name": "Alien Inu",
"symbol": "AI",
"hotTerms": [
"inu"
],
"ageMinutes": 28,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": true,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 1,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3075.88257643926,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 141
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 617,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 06:00 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
6964ad56690337766e92ff25c6db3417b19cb72f2c8d68fb92f308cdda45fa87Previous hash
9dee648cbd4a1fb4a6b3d1fedcd8d60f5b0c303ecb7c897e814dfbda1c15673e