Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

102 of 1870 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (82 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45233023512752557,
      "momentum": 0.0258845163209837,
      "diversity": 0.06470588235294121
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4928655634765196
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.056220095693779906,
    "share60": 0.05478353821485837,
    "total15": 417,
    "total60": 1870,
    "momentum": 1.0262224296884117,
    "diversity": 0.803921568627451,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 102,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 82
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 245,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999986087962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4928655634765196
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-16 00:00 UTC.

Integrity