Will "candles" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "candles" (3 distinct creators, rank #110). Last 15m momentum 2.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": 0.759869044257821,
      "diversity": -0.5727272727272728
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.501352590596861
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "candles",
    "rank60": 110,
    "share15": 0.010869565217391304,
    "share60": 0.005083996463306808,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 2.1379962192816633,
    "diversity": 0.2727272727272727,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938269444444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.501352590596861
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0019477989871445266,
  "shareRatio": 0.3897975077881619,
  "totalAfter": 2567,
  "shareBefore": 0.005277044854881266,
  "totalBefore": 2274,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity