Ledger / Prediction #4235 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1870 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (53 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.

Made2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": 0.09238496957863357,
      "diversity": -0.052
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.536582636929763
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04425837320574163,
    "share60": 0.04035275253874933,
    "total15": 417,
    "total60": 1870,
    "momentum": 1.0967869704363258,
    "diversity": 0.7066666666666667,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 53
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 245,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996661111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.536582636929763
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.215

Log loss0.623

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04452255418863503,
  "shareRatio": 1.1111287746017962,
  "totalAfter": 1707,
  "shareBefore": 0.04006410256410257,
  "totalBefore": 1872,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 76,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.01% → 4.45% (+11%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). volume contributed +0.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9d6ed5f57779f130b747a140ece851f75e9d2b862ed8a13bb2dd6d34594f1c7a

Previous hashe9b96a859432eee80eee58ec9175ed42a60ac19eea559021eb4f8279fef6e43a