Ledger / Prediction #4233 · narrative · 1H

Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

102 of 1870 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (82 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45233023512752557,
      "momentum": 0.0258845163209837,
      "diversity": 0.06470588235294121
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5604332675412765
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.056220095693779906,
    "share60": 0.05478353821485837,
    "total15": 417,
    "total60": 1870,
    "momentum": 1.0262224296884117,
    "diversity": 0.803921568627451,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 102,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 82
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 245,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996661111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996661111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5604332675412765
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.193

Log loss0.579

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0626830697129467,
  "shareRatio": 1.1500971040155368,
  "totalAfter": 1707,
  "shareBefore": 0.05448717948717949,
  "totalBefore": 1872,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 107,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 102
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "doge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.45% → 6.27% (+15%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "doge" (1H). volume contributed +0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc0a94b5005819aaa7473c633604d8277411658c1c470a5c10a1bffe3fa1da8c0

Previous hash11987cd04add68f471f2b0f8d42c2edd8aa0c4fee92cbadcecdaf49f355c9a59