GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #4230 · token · 6H

Will $fih still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 05:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07280096915005271
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7kh6Zp6D2x5QKbQByYLn2jRYMEqdtv67b4uaFgqPpump",
    "name": "fih",
    "symbol": "fih",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 7829.8233745131265,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 634,
  "calibration": null
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.07280096915005271
}
Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 05:30 UTC.

Integrity

Hashe2b49550de7a3f7a4d26b9345d585785e3d2a670d02af3e9d4d9ef16f4bb7f4a
Previous hash71127f419c8bf7d225f0fbb228ad2aaf79228949069e208e46042643c3212a7a