Ledger / Prediction #423 · narrative · 1H

Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2261 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (3 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.65×.

Made2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 01:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 00:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -0.43218898221116553,
      "diversity": -0.8571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2375561216449573
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "save",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.024247491638795988,
    "share60": 0.03735632183908046,
    "total15": 597,
    "total60": 2261,
    "momentum": 0.6490866992539233,
    "diversity": 0.03571428571428571,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938269444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2375561216449573
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.056

Log loss0.271

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015582391897156213,
  "shareRatio": 0.42460460100647013,
  "totalAfter": 2567,
  "shareBefore": 0.036939313984168866,
  "totalBefore": 2274,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 40,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "save" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.69% → 1.56% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "save" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd25e40f00a0ad0fee4b41d5b9ec80d9cedb03b39db8dd813ff103ee346e43aef

Previous hashca04382f8533898a710c5f79deaefb3f4ac07025e566834d0bb0731730247cbe