Ledger / Prediction #4217 · narrative · 1H

Will "mud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 2171 launches in the last hour referenced "mud" (47 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-14 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": -2.5443268729956583,
      "diversity": -0.22857142857142854
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06600802820370465
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mud",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.003054989816700611,
    "share60": 0.038904235727440145,
    "total15": 490,
    "total60": 2171,
    "momentum": 0.0785258920931802,
    "diversity": 0.5595238095238095,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 258,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949441666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949441666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06600802820370465
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.068

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005652911249293386,
  "shareRatio": 0.021863403871226556,
  "totalAfter": 1769,
  "shareBefore": 0.038549793483249196,
  "totalBefore": 2179,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "mud" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.85% → 0.06% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mud" (1H). momentum contributed -2.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash77d49987a6d35277132628b8a96548dfd0f5cd4b7f4af483730e29719cabb184

Previous hash0d66b836104fc4bb168038a0a932a4cb92ae4b839f6fd0d8f1bdfd2d5a9bf81b