Ledger / Prediction #4215 · token · 1H

Will $Private still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "C55VhKSRDamusy5bh3CkgWJufvrKJU2wL8wCC6izpump",
    "name": "Private Coin",
    "symbol": "Private",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 20,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3383.0076553773633,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 860,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T22:36:45.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2919.592789234739,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4910.833639398022,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3383.0076553773633,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6766.015310754727
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Private would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,920, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Private (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7ae2cbc0c0aba0b6b19953b602c3f6f3c69cfd007253180cd392a2eec6cd4b24

Previous hash9a46e75dd1486f4811e06b63da7185611c5dc880956e54a6c85297dfea93f328