Will "mud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

81 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "mud" (44 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.60×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4177516863357507,
      "momentum": 1.279610218531556,
      "diversity": -0.24814814814814817
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.604585108151063
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mud",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.12936507936507938,
    "share60": 0.03598233995584989,
    "total15": 629,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 3.595238095238096,
    "diversity": 0.5432098765432098,
    "launches15": 81,
    "launches60": 81,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 44
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999162384259259
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.604585108151063
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 23:00 UTC.

Integrity