Ledger / Prediction #4201 · narrative · 1H

Will "pept" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

149 of 2264 launches in the last hour referenced "pept" (45 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5091762590267038,
      "momentum": -3.3222210661910205,
      "diversity": -0.5375838926174497
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pept",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.002380952380952381,
    "share60": 0.06600441501103753,
    "total15": 629,
    "total60": 2264,
    "momentum": 0.03607262302914477,
    "diversity": 0.30201342281879195,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 149,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979897222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9979897222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005341880341880342,
  "shareRatio": 0.012149414224671308,
  "totalAfter": 1872,
  "shareBefore": 0.06572562858403176,
  "totalBefore": 2267,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 149
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "pept" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.57% → 0.05% (-99%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pept" (1H). momentum contributed -3.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash84a7955be9aa6d78a8b2971e9eaf39c723037dc55efcd72ea8c85819204db3ad

Previous hashc19914c2ea0584f6322cf71a1f9c03c4fcdf8beea8a049837dfdc2fca1f7c22c