Ledger / Prediction #419 · token · 1H

Will $NMOS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04131095796590443
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "74DzFb1u9G5weuGNEbck6WP5kG1EzAjKFfnKoUedpump",
    "name": "National Medal of Science⁠",
    "symbol": "NMOS",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 242,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3061.438349382086,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 781,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04131095796590443
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.042

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T23:32:55.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3051.092216540778,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3067.4182996111335,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3061.438349382086,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6122.876698764172
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $NMOS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,051, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $NMOS (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3f5033c4893909d2fb95a9609bc40c4bb7ad3a7611e6aa33fb7df97a38c9e8ba

Previous hash23880aa0612d5a848a555b51819c39f579250fef3487b6398efc67a8a7968713