Ledger / Prediction #4188 · narrative · 1H

Will "apple" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2227 launches in the last hour referenced "apple" (7 distinct creators, rank #178). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-14 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.1455198577239325,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2506687074451631
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "apple",
    "rank60": 178,
    "share15": 0.0010706638115631692,
    "share60": 0.0033662477558348293,
    "total15": 466,
    "total60": 2227,
    "momentum": 0.31805852962169884,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 314,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927077777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9927077777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2506687074451631
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.063

Log loss0.289

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018357044515832951,
  "shareRatio": 0.6173394495412844,
  "totalAfter": 2179,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031222123104371097,
  "totalBefore": 2242,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "apple" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.18% (-41%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "apple" (1H). momentum contributed -1.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4a1666b3f647010f74102f4fc73ad77703431bcd917eae71d8a76900d691094a

Previous hash4a0f245289ab585c1e543e112d2a7c18f1d798a43069b65d41223ac2b61295b5