Ledger / Prediction #4183 · token · 1H

Will $PEPPA still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "bird". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "9rSvAzasEAA4jgbZkg5UGrpwr2qhk7Mebrs4K5hTpump",
    "name": "DODO BIRD",
    "symbol": "PEPPA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "bird"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2930.237478927511,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 782,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 23:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T21:40:38.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2925.629078328425,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4402.998412937645,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2930.237478927511,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5860.474957855022
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $PEPPA would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,926, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $PEPPA (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe04a6386712a1512b251d76890d0bab43bd800b9ada755b140bcb022287e64fd

Previous hash88e3d89049acabc03d80d9a18c0d03d53a61d360b42803ec9c62795427e6eae4