Ledger / Prediction #417 · token · 1H

Will $BABAGAI still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link, website, Telegram. Rides hot term "tiktok". Creator launched 29 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853625
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "66KhQWhiYTbVoDh5QDinkDKbJGNVtRWwuirkvVrpVV6T",
    "name": "Babagai",
    "symbol": "BABAGAI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "tiktok",
      "video",
      "burned",
      "tpad"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 91,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1380.9434927388354,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 29
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 781,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853625
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 1380.9434927388354,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1380.9434927388354,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $BABAGAI would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,381, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $BABAGAI (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5069544b72d4a033788202d4880c77cdf8a57b823cf6558b08698c1a9928c25d

Previous hash8da4802e23a466256f29f702bbf1d7b419a486359b78387a35a60879e4136365