Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

70 of 2169 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (52 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.39585859944228874,
      "momentum": -0.006245247914178168,
      "diversity": -0.00857142857142854
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.520249399129854
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.03228621291448516,
    "share60": 0.03248847926267281,
    "total15": 572,
    "total60": 2169,
    "momentum": 0.9937742131125221,
    "diversity": 0.7428571428571429,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 70,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 325,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9882255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9882255555555556
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.520249399129854
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014556682840758712,
  "shareRatio": 0.45283111949778615,
  "totalAfter": 2267,
  "shareBefore": 0.03240529438612506,
  "totalBefore": 2191,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity