Ledger / Prediction #4161 · narrative · 24H
Will "muse" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 38% → FADES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
50 of 2032 launches in the last hour referenced "muse" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.51×.
Made2026-10-14 21:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 21:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34538776394910686,
"momentum": -0.6712279707908838,
"diversity": -0.03600000000000003
},
"rawProbability": 0.3820348797582152
},
"features": {
"term": "muse",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.0126953125,
"share60": 0.02484013772749631,
"total15": 511,
"total60": 2032,
"momentum": 0.5110806002475248,
"diversity": 0.72,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 50,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 36
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 293,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918833333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996618055555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3820348797582152
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 21:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
d6f1b93d8f553f496934182ab81da4f61fb91335021869b0bc6de17e6e3447cePrevious hash
35c2a3f6c2674fb6cc3847a6daafa62caea9acabeeadc1eef9e5a7e21db6f449